#13 - The Rise and Fall of Crypto

November 7, 2018
Last year at this time Bitcoin was going haywire!  It was on what seems to be the never ending rise to THE MOON!   Until it stopped just shortly into 2018.  Totally unpredictable behaviour.  Stupid bitcoin!  Or is it?
There is a pattern.  Ok a few patterns but this one struck me as interesting.
If you check out the blog article or this podcast on you’ll see a few graphs of bitcoin over the years.  The all time price isn’t really that interesting because the big 2017 Christmas spike kind of skews the whole thing but the idea is that it’s generally going up with basic awareness.  That doesn’t give it real value so much as real potential value.
What IS interesting is the behaviour of the price when the media gets involved and starts hyping it.  Part time thrill seekers get into the crypto band wagon and shit gets crazy.  In fact if you think last year was a bizarre anomaly, and do check out the price graph for Nov 4th 2017 to Nov 4th 2018 to get a feel for the signature of that crazy….
but then, let’s go back 4 years.
In fact I’ll even go back to the exact same dates Nov 4th 2013 to Nov 4th 2014.  That was the last major Bitcoin hullabaloo in the press.
If you check out the graph, although the pricing is almost exactly 20 times smaller, the shape of the graph can almost be overlaid on the graph from 2017/18 and it was even the exact same time of the year as Christmas approaches.
Driven by media and speculation, people react almost exactly the same and it appears that 4 years is the magic amount of time for us humans to totally forget that we already did it once and, just go ahead and do it again.
Let’s get away from Bitcoin for the moment… and talk about some of the other big ones like Ethereum and Litecoin.
I like Ethereum and while I don’t entirely understand Litecoin's purpose yet it’s definitely got a good following.
The reason I like Ethereum is it has a leader (who is real), it had a plan and it has one really critical differentiator that I think a lot of people will like and that’s the Proof of Stake system it’s got in its roadmap for the future.
Before I get into that though, the other reason I like Ethereum is because it’s not a straight up cryptocurrency.   It’s a platform for the creation of Smart Contracts.
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